Did bookies know the results of the Scottish referendum in advance, while polls were way off the mark? It sure looks that way.

Scotland has voted to stay in the UK, with 55.3 % of voters deciding against dissolving the union that is 300-year of and going it alone. Many were surprised that the margin between winning and votes that are losing because wide as ten percent; a number of polls had predicted that the result was too close to call and that the ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ campaigns had been split straight down the middle.

The stark reality is, polls were throughout the accepted place: contradictory and fluctuating wildly. They ranged from a lead that is six-point the ‘yes’ vote up to a seven point lead for the ‘no’ vote in the weeks leading up to the referendum. And they considerably underestimated the margin of the ‘No’ victory although they were correctly predicting a ‘no’ vote on the eve of the big day.

Margins of mistake

Maybe Not the bookies, though. It was had by them all figured down ages ago. Although the pollsters’ predictions had been see-sawing, online activities outfit that is betting had already decided to spend bettors who had their funds on a’no’ vote a few days prior to the referendum even occurred. And even though there is a whiff of a PR stunt about this announcement, it was made from a position of supreme confidence, because the markets that are betting rating the probability of a ‘no’ vote at around 80 percent at the very least a week before the vote occurred. It absolutely was a forecast that, unlike that of the heavily swinging results of the pollsters, remained stable in the lead up to the referendum.

But why, then, are polls so unreliable when compared to the gambling areas, and why is the media in such thrall with their wildly results that are unreliable? The polling businesses openly acknowledge that their studies are inaccurate, often advising that we ought to allow for a margin of error, commonly around five percent. This means in a closely fought race, such since the Scottish referendum, their info is utterly useless. The existence of a 5 percent margin of error renders that survey useless in a race where one party, according to the polls, is leading by, say, 52 percent.

The questions that are wrong

You will find many factors which make polls unreliable, too many, in fact, to list here. Sometimes the test size of participants is too low, or it is unrepresentative of the people. Often they ask leading questions, or those that conduct them are sloppy or dishonest about recording information. But the ultimate, prevailing explanation why polls fail is which they usually ask the question that is wrong. Instead of asking people whom they’ll vote for, they should really be asking the question that the bookies always ask: ‘Who do you think will win?’

Research conducted by Professor Justin Wolfers shows that this concern yields better forecasts, because, to quote Wolfers, it ‘leads them to also think about the opinions of these because it may yield more truthful answers. around them, and maybe also’

Dishonest Answers

Those interviewed by pollsters are far more likely to express their support for change, while suppressing their concerns about the possible negative consequences in a case such as the Scottish referendum, where there is a large and popular movement for change. When expected about an issue on the spot, it’s easier to express the perceived popular view. For the Scots, a ‘yes’ vote might represent the appealing proposition of severing ties with a remote and unpopular government in Westminster, but additionally means uncertainty and possible chaos that is economic.

As Wolfers states, ‘There is a tendency that is historical polling to overstate the likelihood of success of referendums, possibly because we’re more prepared to tell pollsters we will vote for change than to actually do so. Such biases are less likely to want to distort polls that ask people who they think will win. Indeed, in offering their objectives, some respondents may also reflect on whether or perhaps not they believe recent polling.

In short, when expected whether they’d vote for an independent Scotland, an important number of Scots evidently lied. Gamblers, on the other hand, were brutally honest.